Insights category - Markets economy

Markets & economy

As bottom-up stock pickers we are less concerned about the market and economy than factors that make individual shares attractive. However, we acknowledge that we need to bear in mind the context in which we must invest. Here we share our long-term views on the market and economy.   

Articles in "Markets & economy"

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Seeking a bridge for South Africa’s troubled waters

By Raine Adams on 01 Oct 2024

Reading time: 16 mins

As South Africans breathe a sigh of relief that load shedding has tailed off, water risks have come to the fore. Multiple provinces are grappling with...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Rate-cutting cycle kicks off

By Thalia Petousis on 25 Sep 2024

Reading time: 8 mins

During the last quarter, US equity indices reached new all-time highs as the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) commenced its rate-cutting cycle with a cut of 50...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

After four years, South Africa gets repo rate relief

By Thalia Petousis on 20 Sep 2024

Reading time: 3 mins

On 19 September, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut interest rates for the first time in four years – lowering the overnight rate of interest from 8.2...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

How the great election year has shaped financial markets

By Vuyo Mroxiso on 18 Sep 2024

Listening time: 50 mins

Global elections have been a dominant force this year, with sentiment around polling and election results driving volatility in many markets.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Election fever seizes the globe

By Thalia Petousis on 09 Jul 2024

Reading time: 6 mins

According to Deutsche Bank, 2024 will see the most people vote in a single year in recorded history. As speculation fuels heightened uncertainty around the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Investment notes from the frontier

By Grant Pitt on 20 May 2024

Listening time: 51 min

Investing in frontier markets is not for the faint-hearted. But for those brave enough to look beyond material risks, such as political instability, currency...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The trillion-dollar endgame

By Thalia Petousis on 02 May 2024

Reading time: 13 mins

The US government has dug itself into a debt hole. With spending being its go-to solution for most problems, it is unclear how the situation will be resolved...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Frontier markets: Innovative industry leaders drive returns

By Varshan Maharaj on 14 Apr 2024

Reading time: 3 mins

There are many variables to consider when investing in frontier markets, and investors need to weigh up the risks very carefully as they pursue long-term...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What’s in store for interest rates in 2024?

By Thalia Petousis on 08 Feb 2024

Reading time: 6 mins

Over the course of 2023, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the overnight repo rate from 7.00% to a 14-year high of 8.25%. 

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Eskom: Are brighter days ahead?

By Raine Adams on 01 Feb 2024

Reading time: 16 mins

What does 2024 have in store for loadshedding? Raine Adams investigates whether there is any light at the end of the dark tunnel.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Geopolitical and fiscal pressures mount as a major global election year kicks off

By Thalia Petousis on 22 Jan 2024

Reading time: 8 mins

The market seemed determined to end 2023 on a hopeful note, unwinding the intra-year losses in global stock and bond indices. The rationale rests in the eage...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The inflation conversation is far from over

By Thalia Petousis on 23 Oct 2023

Reading time: 7 mins

If the history of debt markets repeats itself, we are now in year three of a new multi-decade bear market for bonds.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The problem with a 12% yield

By Thalia Petousis on 04 Oct 2023

Reading time: 4 mins

The notion of a government bond trading at a 12% yield can sound very appealing, but it poses several issues.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Is South Africa winning the inflation battle?

By Thandi Skade on 26 Sep 2023

Reading time: 4 mins

Following the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) aggressive near-two-year interest rate hiking cycle, headline inflation in South Africa seems to be getting...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Currency dynamics and returns in emerging and frontier markets

By Rami Hajjar on 31 Jul 2023

Reading time: 16 mins

Rami Hajjar considers currency dynamics in emerging and frontier markets, focusing on how currency impacts returns, and how we think about this factor when...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The prospects for global growth

By Sandy McGregor on 19 Jul 2023

Reading time: 18 mins

The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Shedding dark on the issue of South Africa’s economic growth

By Thalia Petousis on 04 May 2023

Reading time: 12 mins

South African companies are reallocating billions of rands towards the extraordinary costs associated with loadshedding. Government’s prospects for debt...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Higher-than-expected rate hike improves South Africa’s attractiveness for investors

By Thalia Petousis on 03 Apr 2023

Reading time: 6 mins

A repo rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) to 7.75% was announced by South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago on Thursday, 30 March, at the Moneta...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The new normal: What lies ahead?

By Thalia Petousis on 27 Mar 2023

Listening time: 1 min

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor reflect on a range of macroeconomic issues as they...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The consequences of South Africa’s greylisting

By Sandy McGregor and Daniel van Andel on 27 Feb 2023

Reading time: 4 mins

As anticipated, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has added South Africa to the list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring, the greylist, with...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The 2023 Budget: A crisis of credibility in the outer years of the forecast

By Thalia Petousis on 13 Feb 2023

Reading time: 5 mins

Thalia Petousis, portfolio manager at Allan Gray, shares her views on the challenges of putting together a credible national budget

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Massive market moves: How will they shape the years ahead?

By Tamryn Lamb on 09 Feb 2023

Listening time: 54 Mins

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, joins Tamryn Lamb, head of Retail, to unpack why the year was a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The threat of greylisting

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Jan 2023

Reading time: 17 mins

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) was established in 1989 to coordinate an international effort to combat money laundering. As South Africa’s economy is...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Are inflation-beating returns on the horizon for money market investors in 2023?

By Thalia Petousis on 26 Jan 2023

Reading time: 5 mins

The 2022 calendar year was undeniably one of meaningful financial market upheaval, worsened by negative portfolio returns of a quantum that many investors ha...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal

By Sandy McGregor on 20 Jan 2023

Reading time: 4 mins

2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate

By Sandy McGregor on 02 Nov 2022

Reading time: 3 mins

During the past quarter inflation has remained elevated. In the US the latest print for August was 8.3%. In Europe it was 10.0% in September. Even though in...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The price of money, the shortage of energy, and the monster of inflation

By Thalia Petousis on 27 Oct 2022

Reading time: 10 mins

Thalia Petousis discusses its impact on financial markets, global trade financing and the energy sector, as well as how central banks are now waging a war...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Podcast: Can South African investors continue to count on commodities?

By Sean Munsie on 25 Aug 2022

Listening time: 1 min

In this episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio managers Sean Munsie and Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and investment analyst Jithen Pillay discuss the cyclica...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Whither inflation?

By Sandy McGregor on 28 Jul 2022

Reading time: 21 mins

In the past 12 months , global inflation has surged. Sandy McGregor discusses the increasingly turbulent response of the financial markets.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

On the commodity boom and other South African fables (and foibles)

By Thalia Petousis on 28 Jul 2022

Reading time: 8 mins

Just as the economic destruction from the COVID-19 pandemic rose to crisis levels, strong commodity export prices swept in to alleviate South Africa’s fiscal...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Podcast: Can optimism rise from the inflationary ashes?

By Thalia Petousis on 25 Jul 2022

Listening time: 43 min

In conversation with portfolio manager, Thalia Petousis, Sandy McGregor reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting th...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Positioning our portfolios for an inflationary environment

By Gladness Rupare on 01 Jul 2022

Viewing time: 40 min

With rising global inflation and the possibility of a recession on the cards, investors are tasked with protecting their capital and looking for opportunitie...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The SARB hikes rates as food inflation threatens to erode the income of the working class

By Thalia Petousis on 19 May 2022

Reading time: 3 mins

Raising rates by 50-basis points to take the SA repo rate to 4.75%, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivered what may have been a ‘credibility move’....

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Food price inflation: Are we watching “That ‘70s Show”?

By Thalia Petousis on 12 May 2022

Reading time: 7 mins

Unaffordable food and fuel prices are raising developed market consumer inflation to multi-decade highs, while the Federal Reserve recently announced a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Understanding the impact of the Ukraine crisis on your investments

By Jacques Plaut on 07 Mar 2022

Reading time: 5 mins

Like everyone else, we have been watching with dismay as the war in Ukraine unfolds. While in this piece we address some of the economic and investment...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The long road to debt reform: SA’s Budget underwhelms bond investors

By Thalia Petousis on 24 Feb 2022

Reading time: 3 mins

Despite the positivity priced into the Budget from the much-publicised tax revenue overruns, the outcome has positively underwhelmed South African bond...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

‘Hopeful Budget’ may strike right notes, but tax clarity and economic reforms are needed

By Thalia Petousis on 17 Feb 2022

Reading time: 5 mins

This year’s Budget speech, set to be delivered on 23 February by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, is likely to strike an optimistic chord thanks to a numbe...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Q&A: Perspectives and positioning for 2022

By Tim Acker on 17 Feb 2022

Viewing time: 1 min

Amid a rising inflationary environment and ongoing uncertainty, many investors are struggling to take a long-term view. During the recent Allan Gray webinar,...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Sticking to the slow and steady path of normalisation, for now

By Thalia Petousis on 28 Jan 2022

Reading time: 3 mins

At the January meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by another 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The trouble with municipalities

By Londa Nxumalo on 27 Jan 2022

Reading time: 7 mins

The extensive infrastructure needs of South African municipalities provide an opportunity for long-term bond investors – such as retirement funds – to help...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The transition into the post-pandemic world

By Sandy McGregor on 27 Jan 2022

Reading time: 19 mins

It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global economic recovery slower and more complex than expected

By Sandy McGregor on 19 Jan 2022

Reading time: 3 mins

The global recovery from the severe economic contraction in the first half of 2020, which followed the initial outbreak of the pandemic, has proved to be bot...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The divided Committee draws a line in the sand, but gradually

By Thalia Petousis on 19 Nov 2021

Reading time: 3 mins

At the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%. The recent dissenting...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Can we expect an interest rate hike in November?

By Thalia Petousis on 04 Nov 2021

Reading time: 4 mins

South Africa should prepare for interest rate hikes given the rising inflationary pressures and global energy shortage currently unfolding. Thalia Petousis...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation

By Sandy McGregor on 15 Oct 2021

Reading time: 4 mins

With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Lebanon’s financial collapse

By Rami Hajjar on 11 Oct 2021

Reading time: 19 mins

On 17 October 2019, angry demonstrators took to the streets of Lebanon to protest a US$6 per month WhatsApp communication tax. Little did they know that the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Africa market bond exposure: Understanding the risks and opportunities

By Londa Nxumalo on 11 Oct 2021

Reading time: 11 mins

Is it worth taking on a bit more risk to achieve potential return? Londa Nxumalo explains the relationship between risk and return in the fixed income contex...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Inflation returns

By Sandy McGregor on 26 Jul 2021

Reading time: 17 mins

Prices are on the up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is, will deflationary conditions resume as global economic conditions normalise or is...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

MPC rates decision: Where to from here?

By Thalia Petousis on 22 Jul 2021

Reading time: 4 mins

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today made the unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.5%.

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Q&A with portfolio managers from Allan Gray and Orbis 2021

By Tamryn Lamb on 26 May 2021

Reading time: 1 min

The global recovery is underway as markets rebound from their March 2020 lows, but the current pandemic is far from over, leaving many investors questioning...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global recovery underway

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Apr 2021

Reading time: 2 mins

The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The state of the economy

By Sandy McGregor and Vuyo Nogantshi on 10 Feb 2021

Viewing time: 62 mins

In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

America as seen from afar

By Sandy McGregor on 27 Jan 2021

Reading time: 19 mins

The United States is of critical importance to all investors regardless of where they are domiciled. It is the world’s largest economy, the powerhouse of...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

African sovereign debt: Is a reality check looming?

By Mark Dunley-Owen on 26 Jan 2021

Reading time: 3 mins

Despite deteriorating economic fundamentals, Africa’s financial markets made a remarkable recovery in 2020. Mark Dunley-Owen discusses the price distortion i...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The impact of COVID-19's second wave

By Sandy McGregor on 12 Jan 2021

Reading time: 3 mins

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the global recovery following the severe economic contraction experienced during the second quarter ...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19 and the Fourth Industrial Revolution

By Tapologo Motshubi on 15 Dec 2020

Viewing time: 91 mins

In the final instalment of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, our panellists discuss the impac...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

African institutional investors

By Tapologo Motshubi on 02 Dec 2020

Viewing time: 84 mins

In the third of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, African institutional investors share their...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

African sovereign and corporate listed bonds

By Tapologo Motshubi on 16 Nov 2020

Viewing time: 1 hr 9 mins 2 seconds

In the second of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, Celestin Rwabukumba, CEO of the Rwanda Sto...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Volatility in African securities: Evaluating risk and understanding the opportunities

By Tapologo Motshubi on 03 Nov 2020

Viewing time: 1 hr 12 mins 2 seconds

In the first of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, Dr Bartholomew Armah, of the UN Economic...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The dangers of printing money

By Sandy McGregor on 16 Oct 2020

Reading time: 14 mins

Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Do fundamentals still matter?

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 15 Sep 2020

Reading time: 7 mins

There is an increasingly wide disconnect between the economic reality on the ground and the valuations reflected in some asset classes globally, begging the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Searching for value amid Africa’s disappointing equity returns

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 11 Aug 2020

Reading time: 5 mins

International equity markets have recovered sharply from the March lows, however African markets made only a modest recovery. As the continent’s leaders face...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19 continues to rock the global economy

By Sandy McGregor on 10 Jul 2020

Reading time: 3 mins

It seems that, with a few exceptions, such as the southern United States, in the Northern Hemisphere the COVID-19 pandemic is well past its peak. Lockdowns a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19 cracked the crystal ball

By Tamryn Lamb on 22 Jun 2020

Reading time: 9 mins

Investors and their advisers continue to grapple with the question of what life, and indeed the world economy, will look like in the next one to three years....

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update

By Duncan Artus on 01 Jun 2020

Reading time: 1 min

During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis

By Sandy McGregor on 27 May 2020

Reading time: 5 mins

The Coronavirus pandemic has caused a massive disruption of global economic activity without peacetime precedent. In a presentation via Zoom webinar, Sandy...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Q&A: Understanding the economic context in which we must invest

By Grant Pitt on 27 May 2020

Reading time: 1 min

As investors, we must understand the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the impact on different asset classes. Grant Pitt, joint head of Institutional...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Investing beyond COVID-19

By Tamryn Lamb on 26 May 2020

Reading time: 1 min

While financial market volatility as a result of COVID-19 is expected to continue over the short term, the investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis are focus...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Opinion: Counting the economic cost of South Africa’s lockdown

By Andrew Lapping on 07 May 2020

Reading time: 8 mins

As South Africans, we want our country to prosper and the quality of life for all those living within our borders to improve. Millions live in total poverty...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The world after the COVID-19 pandemic

By Sandy McGregor on 23 Apr 2020

Reading time: 11 mins

We are witnessing a global economic collapse without precedent in modern times. As investors we must think about what the world will look like when the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Is there long-term value in frontier markets?

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 23 Apr 2020

Reading time: 6 mins

At the time of publication, roughly one-third of the world’s population is living under lockdown regulations as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In many...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Looking to history to understand potential outcomes

By Stephan Bernard on 09 Apr 2020

Reading time: 7 mins

With much of the world in lockdown, one wonders whether it is appropriate to draw on past analogies in thinking about what lies ahead. However, every prior...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers

By Tamryn Lamb on 08 Apr 2020

Viewing time: 6 mins

With many countries in lockdown, uncertainty prevails. Against this backdrop, many clients are asking for our views on the economic impact, an update on our...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Impact of Moody's downgrade

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Mar 2020

Reading time: 2 mins

As a consequence of the decision by Moody’s to lower South Africa’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3, all three leading rating agencies now rate South African...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity

By Duncan Artus on 25 Mar 2020

Viewing time: 1 min

We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Coronavirus: Taking stock of the state of the markets

By Andrew Lapping on 19 Mar 2020

Reading time: 10 mins

The world is changing extremely fast. The global business shutdown is unlike anything seen outside wartime. It is impossible to know the length or depth of t...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

How will current market conditions impact our portfolios?

By Radhesen Naidoo on 11 Mar 2020

Reading time: 8 mins

The start of 2020 has been tumultuous as fears about the coronavirus have dominated the news and global markets. The resulting volatility has been compounded...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Making sense of current market conditions

By Andrew Lapping on 09 Mar 2020

Reading time: 4 mins

The current market volatility is understandably causing investors much stress. Andrew Lapping examines the impact of coronavirus and the drop of the oil pric...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

A downgrade imposes a cost on all South Africans

By Sandy McGregor on 06 Mar 2020

Reading time: 3 mins

Reports showed this week that South Africa slipped into its second recession in two years in the final quarter of 2019. Will Moody’s now be even more incline...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

2020 Budget: Managing the wage bill and fixing Eskom's credibility

By Sandy McGregor on 21 Feb 2020

Reading time: 2 mins

The National Treasury faces formidable challenges in preparing the Budget for the 2020/21 fiscal year, which will be presented on 26 February. Projections...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

How could a ratings downgrade affect investors?

By Sehrish Khan on 13 Feb 2020

Reading time: 8 mins

Inundated with reports of failing state-owned enterprises and spiralling government debt, investors are understandably concerned ahead of South Africa’s 2020...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Platinum can move the needle on the economic growth SA so desperately needs

By Tim Acker on 07 Feb 2020

Reading time: 2 mins

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) are proving to be market darlings: In the last 12 months platinum prices have soared by 30%, palladium prices have doubled, and...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Inflation

By Sandy McGregor on 29 Jan 2020

Reading time: 15 mins

Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What lies ahead for Africa’s frontier markets?

By Nick Ndiritu on 20 Jan 2020

Reading time: 5 mins

At the core of our investment philosophy is a belief that markets are not always efficient or rational. We invest in businesses that we consider to be...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global growth slows

By Sandy McGregor on 13 Jan 2020

Reading time: 3 mins

Over the past year, global economic growth has slowed. International trade volumes have contracted. This slowdown has many causes but has been significantly...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What can be done to improve South Africa’s prospects?

By Sandy McGregor on 28 Oct 2019

Reading time: 12 mins

When the National Treasury first published its Economic Policy Paper, there was widespread puzzlement as to why yet another such report was needed. It repeat...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

An age of anxiety

By Sandy McGregor on 22 Oct 2019

Reading time: 3 mins

We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Broadened horizons, local learnings

By Nick Ndiritu and Leonard Krüger on 22 Oct 2019

Reading time: 7 mins

Leonard Krüger and Nick Ndiritu look at how we have tailored our investment philosophy and process to invest in Frontier Africa markets. They discuss lessons...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Economic update: A state of stagnation

By Sandy McGregor on 11 Oct 2019

Reading time: 2 mins

Global economic conditions continue to deteriorate but so far, no major economy has entered a recession. Business conditions in Europe and Japan are best...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Making sense of the rand

By Linda Kallis on 10 Oct 2019

Reading time: 9 mins

Like other emerging market currencies, the rand has seen periods of prolonged fluctuation since September 2018 but has remained relatively stable over time....

Insights categories - Markets and economy

South African investors need to fall out of love with equities

By Kevin Lings on 30 Jul 2019

Reading time: 6 mins

South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Trade wars

By Sandy McGregor on 29 Jul 2019

Reading time: 18 mins

In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global business conditions deteriorate

By Sandy McGregor on 12 Jul 2019

Reading time: 2 mins

Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Guarded optimism on new Zimbabwe dollar

By Nick Ndiritu on 03 Jul 2019

Reading time: 5 mins

This past quarter, Zimbabwe reintroduced its national currency, reviving bitter memories of the hyperinflation period before the infamous Zimbabwe dollar was...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Finding value in frontier African markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 29 Apr 2019

Reading time: 12 mins

Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global slowdown continues to take its toll

By Sandy McGregor on 26 Apr 2019

Reading time: 2 mins

The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Riding out volatility in African equity markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 04 Feb 2019

Reading time: 4 mins

Africa’s equity markets delivered disappointing returns in 2018. The MSCI Africa index was down -24%, while the MSCI Africa ex-SA index was down -13%. None o...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

South Africa's fiscal dilemma

By Sandy McGregor on 25 Jan 2019

Reading time: 11 mins

Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global economy losing momentum

By Sandy McGregor on 18 Jan 2019

Reading time: 3 mins

After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets

By Duncan Artus on 12 Oct 2018

Reading time: 4 mins

Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure

By Sandy McGregor on 05 Oct 2018

Reading time: 3 mins

Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Increasing policy uncertainty

By Sandy McGregor on 20 Jul 2018

Reading time: 3 mins

With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest

By Kevin Lings on 18 Jul 2018

Reading time: 5 mins

South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Zimbabwe in transition

By Nick Ndiritu on 06 Jul 2018

Reading time: 6 mins

Zimbabwe’s election on 30 July 2018 heralds a new beginning after the abrupt end to President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year reign in November 2017. We are not...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Approaching a tipping point?

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2018

Reading time: 11 mins

After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Business confidence improves in South Africa

By Sandy McGregor on 13 Apr 2018

Reading time: 2 mins

After 18 months of accelerating growth, the momentum of the expansion of the global economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018.  It is noteworthy that an...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Demystifying Africa’s debt markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 15 Feb 2018

Reading time: 4 mins

Investors seeking diversification outside of South Africa can easily overlook the investment opportunities in other African markets. It is tempting to start ...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Fixing the South African economy

By Sandy McGregor on 24 Jan 2018

Reading time: 10 mins

If we can make necessary changes domestically, favourable global business conditions will support a rapid economic turnaround. Now that the ANC conference is...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What can be done to address SA’s fiscal crisis?

By Sandy McGregor on 12 Jan 2018

Reading time: 2 mins

Global economic activity continued to gain momentum in the last quarter of 2017. Global purchasing manager’s indices, which are a good barometer of current a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Facing a fiscal crisis

By Sandy McGregor on 13 Oct 2017

Reading time: 2 mins

The synchronised global economic expansion continues to gain momentum. World trade is growing and increasing demand is putting upward pressure on commodity...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Is now the time to invest?

By Todd Buchholz and Andrew Lapping on 12 Oct 2017

Reading time: 1 min

Is it time to put your money under the mattress or is it time to invest? Watch this 7-min clip with Andrew Lapping, our chief investment officer, and Todd...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Invest in stocks with dividends, but put stop losses in place

By Todd Buchholz on 01 Sep 2017

Reading time: 3 mins

It is always a good time to invest, the question is where...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Value investing in Nigeria

By Nick Ndiritu on 16 Aug 2017

Reading time: 5 mins

Active managers in Africa and frontier markets have to counter the perceived higher-risk of investing in volatile markets prone to political and economic...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The economics of taxation

By Sandy McGregor on 20 Jul 2017

Reading time: 11 mins

An efficient tax system is a necessary feature of a modern state. Taxes have always been a focus of political concern, even when, by modern standards...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

SA economy in the doldrums as the rest of the world picks up

By Sandy McGregor on 14 Jul 2017

Reading time: 2 mins

Since January, domestic demand in South Africa has been very weak, the clearest evidence of which has been poor retail sales. The consumer is no longer in a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Valuation of Nigerian and Zimbabwean holdings in the Allan Gray Africa ex-SA Equity Fund

By Nick Ndiritu on 12 May 2017

Reading time: 4 mins

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has established a new foreign exchange (FX) platform for investors and exporters, effective 24 April 2017. The exchange...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

South Africa’s economic outlook deteriorates

By on 18 Apr 2017

Reading time: 3 mins

Since the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2016, there has been a worldwide economic upturn. This is the first period of synchronous global growth since the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Nigeria: Finding opportunities where others fear to tread

By Andrew Lapping on 31 Mar 2017

Reading time: 11 mins

Wow, that valuation changed quickly! A few years ago investors were very excited about investing in Africa outside of South Africa. People spoke of Africa...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Should you have bonds in your portfolio?

By Mark Dunley-Owen on 31 Mar 2017

Reading time: 9 mins

Bonds are boring, or so the saying goes. A better interpretation is that bond returns are less volatile than equity returns, most of the time...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Tough times for African equities

By Andrew Lapping on 03 Feb 2017

Reading time: 4 mins

Most African equity markets had a difficult 2016, generating negative dollar returns. The worst performers were Egypt and Nigeria, which fell 47% and 41%...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What is the sweet spot for the oil price?

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 25 Jan 2017

Listening time: 20 mins

In the face of an OPEC oil production cut, shale producer activity and US President Donald Trump proposing various far-reaching changes what can we expect fr...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The winds of change

By Sandy McGregor on 06 Jan 2017

Reading time: 2 mins

While the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States was not expected by investors, it does not seem to have been unwelcome:  both t...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

A changing world

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2016

Reading time: 13 mins

The political shocks of 2016 are a manifestation of rising public discontent about prevailing economic and social conditions. Sandy McGregor provides some...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Investing in Africa’s debt markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 30 Sep 2016

Reading time: 8 mins

Patient capital dedicated to Africa’s capital markets is scarce, especially during economic or political downturns. Nick Ndiritu explains how long-term...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

How to think about the rand when making investment decisions

By Andrew Lapping on 18 Jul 2016

Viewing time: 1 min

Over the last few years we have been concerned about the strength of the rand and our portfolios have been positioned for currency weakness. One of our...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

How to think about risk in Nigeria

By Nick Ndiritu on 11 Jul 2016

Reading time: 4 mins

Our investment approach does not change even during periods of extreme market volatility. As always, we carefully consider investment opportunities where ris...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The economic consequences of political decisions

By Sandy McGregor on 06 Jul 2016

Reading time: 2 mins

The vote by the British electorate in support of leaving the European Union (EU) took markets by surprise. The immediate impact was a strengthening of the US...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Gold: A history of its price

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2016

Reading time: 11 mins

Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Managing portfolios in times of uncertainty

By Duncan Artus on 24 Jun 2016

Reading time: 4 mins

My inbox is filling up with commentary about the impact of Brexit. Some of the commentary is of debatable long-term value and with news of this nature it tak...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Uncertainty persists

By Gary Elston on 20 Apr 2016

Reading time: 3 mins

The increased uncertainty that arose in December of last year has persisted throughout the first quarter of 2016. The current political climate and the threa...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The triumph of the bureaucrats

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2015

Reading time: 8 mins

There is a widespread lament that economic growth is disappointing. While demographics and structural problems are largely to blame, the increasing cost of...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls

By Duncan Artus and Tamryn Lamb on 23 Nov 2015

Reading time: 4 mins

Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Investing in Africa defies a simple narrative

By Nick Ndiritu on 30 Sep 2015

Reading time: 10 mins

Our Equity, Balanced and Stable Funds are allowed to invest up to 5% in Africa outside of South Africa. Some investors may choose to invest directly into...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Secular stagnation: The new normal?

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2015

Reading time: 11 mins

Economists are engaged in an interesting debate about economic growth and what has been described as 'secular stagnation'. The issue has received widespread...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What do low global bond yields mean for South African investors?

By Ian Liddle on 28 Jan 2015

Reading time: 5 mins

Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2014. More than half of global government...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The collapse of the oil price and its consequences

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2014

Reading time: 7 mins

The dramatic collapse of oil prices at the end of last year caught most market participants by surprise. For three and a half years, between February 2011 an...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What's wrong with the South African economy

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Sep 2014

Reading time: 8 mins

After growing strongly for 10 years, since 2012 the South African economy has been stagnating, which prompts the question: What has gone wrong and how can th...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Understanding the risk of loss in Africa ex-SA

By Andrew Lapping on 30 Jun 2014

Reading time: 9 mins

A small percentage of the foreign component of our Balanced and Stable Funds is invested in Africa and investors looking for greater exposure to the region c...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Time to review your equity exposure?

By Ian Liddle on 27 Jan 2014

Reading time: 7 mins

Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2013. We aim to grow our clients’ wealth...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

A simple checklist for domestic asset allocation

By Duncan Artus on 07 Aug 2013

Reading time: 5 mins

I recently read the fascinating book ‘The Success Equation: Untangling luck in Business, Sports and Investing’1, which explores, how much of one’s success or...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The Allan Gray Africa Equity Fund celebrates 15 years

By Andrew Lapping and Nick Ndiritu on 30 Jun 2013

Reading time: 9 mins

When the Allan Gray Africa Equity Fund (the Fund) was launched on 1 July 1998 it was the first unitised product in which Allan Gray Proprietary Limited was...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Not the time to relax risk appetite

By Ian Liddle on 28 Jan 2013

Reading time: 5 mins

In his 1988 annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote: ‘We have no idea how long the excesses will last, nor do we know what will change the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The nature of contrarian investing

By Duncan Artus on 31 Dec 2012

Reading time: 7 mins

The average investor cannot avoid being bullish at market tops and bearish at bottoms. This produces periods of speculation and panic within the normal up an...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The trend is your friend till it bends at the end

By Duncan Artus on 24 May 2012

Reading time: 4 mins

For some time we have been concerned about the sustainability and unbalanced nature of consumption growth in South Africa. I don’t believe you can consume,...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Looking back at 2011 and preparing for the years ahead

By Ian Liddle on 20 Jan 2012

Reading time: 6 mins

South Africa has thus far been spared the crushing austerity measures affecting Europe. Three important factors have been in our favour so far: a decade of...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

An era of high global earnings

By Simon Raubenheimer on 30 Sep 2011

Reading time: 8 mins

Company profits are currently at historic highs, but we do not know with any certainty where they are headed. Although it is entirely possible for global and...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

What we know for sure

By Delphine Govender on 01 Sep 2011

Reading time: 6 mins

At Allan Gray we prefer not to opine over reasons for short-term movements in stock markets and share prices and we shy away from predicting changes in the...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Can the level of interest rates be used to reliably predict investment returns?

By Duncan Artus on 13 Jul 2011

Reading time: 4 mins

Local and global short-term interest rates are at low levels. This has led to questions about the rationale for holding cash both locally and offshore. We ha...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

China's Malthusian challenge

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Mar 2011

Reading time: 9 mins

Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The long-term outlook for the South African bond market

By Andrew Lapping on 31 Mar 2011

Reading time: 9 mins

As a bond investor you need to ask yourself two questions: are your inflation expectations reasonable, and will the potential real return be sufficient? Andr...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Africa's investable universe

By Nick Ndiritu on 31 Dec 2010

Reading time: 7 mins

We expect a change in prudential investment regulations to allow pension fund investors to invest up to 5% of their assets in Africa, in addition to other...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Deflation

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Sep 2010

Reading time: 8 mins

It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Welcoming the world to South Africa (but are they here to stay...?)

By Ian Liddle on 30 Jun 2010

Reading time: 6 mins

For most of the time since our first democratic election in 1994, foreign investors have been net buyers of companies listed on the JSE. They are now...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Another view

By Duncan Artus on 31 Dec 2009

Reading time: 7 mins

Governments around the world are engaged in significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. But there is some doubt about whether their efforts will improve the re...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The triumph of the markets

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2009

Reading time: 8 mins

It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...

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