Articles tagged as "interest rates"
Rate-cutting cycle kicks off
During the last quarter, US equity indices reached new all-time highs as the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) commenced its rate-cutting cycle with a cut of 50...
Election fever seizes the globe
According to Deutsche Bank, 2024 will see the most people vote in a single year in recorded history. As speculation fuels heightened uncertainty around the...
Navigating investment challenges: The interplay between skill and luck
Decision strategist and best-selling author Annie Duke advises focusing on a good process when trying to make the best decisions in highly uncertain scenario...
What’s in store for interest rates in 2024?
Over the course of 2023, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the overnight repo rate from 7.00% to a 14-year high of 8.25%.
Geopolitical and fiscal pressures mount as a major global election year kicks off
The market seemed determined to end 2023 on a hopeful note, unwinding the intra-year losses in global stock and bond indices. The rationale rests in the eage...
Holding steady when global markets are in flux
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, Radhesen Naidoo, Allan Gray’s joint head of Institutional Clients and the client-servicing lead for Orbis in...
The inflation conversation is far from over
If the history of debt markets repeats itself, we are now in year three of a new multi-decade bear market for bonds.
The prospects for global growth
The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.
Teenagers, curfews & interest rates
As interest rates have risen, we have seen a collapse in the valuations of a range of profitless tech companies. More recently we have seen a crisis in the ...
Are we entering a global stockpicker’s paradise?
In conversation with portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Matthew Spencer from our offshore partner, Orbis, explains why the Investment team believes th...
Memory: Industry cycles, not the business cycle
Rob Perrone, a member of the team of Investment Counsellors at our offshore partner, Orbis, explores the case for investing in the memory semiconductor...
Orbis Global Balanced: Investing through the cycles
History seemingly often repeats itself, but it might be dangerous to assume that the investing landscape over the next 20 years will be similar to that of th...
Why South Africa is still attractive for investors
In conversation with portfolio manager Tim Acker, investment analysts Siphesihle Zwane and Jithen Pillay discuss the impact of the major local challenges on...
Higher-than-expected rate hike improves South Africa’s attractiveness for investors
A repo rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) to 7.75% was announced by South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago on Thursday, 30 March, at the Moneta...
The new normal: What lies ahead?
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor reflect on a range of macroeconomic issues as they...
The 2023 Budget: A crisis of credibility in the outer years of the forecast
Thalia Petousis, portfolio manager at Allan Gray, shares her views on the challenges of putting together a credible national budget
Are inflation-beating returns on the horizon for money market investors in 2023?
The 2022 calendar year was undeniably one of meaningful financial market upheaval, worsened by negative portfolio returns of a quantum that many investors ha...
Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal
2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...
Do local banks offer value in an inflationary world?
In the current period of high global inflation and slowing economic activity, how will the local banking sector fare? Are there still long-term opportunities...
Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate
During the past quarter inflation has remained elevated. In the US the latest print for August was 8.3%. In Europe it was 10.0% in September. Even though in...
The price of money, the shortage of energy, and the monster of inflation
Thalia Petousis discusses its impact on financial markets, global trade financing and the energy sector, as well as how central banks are now waging a war...
Why financial optimism matters and how to find it when the world is a mess
Lise-Mari Crafford, head of ManCo Distribution, discusses why being optimistic about our personal finances matters, and how we can look on the bright side wh...
Whither inflation?
In the past 12 months , global inflation has surged. Sandy McGregor discusses the increasingly turbulent response of the financial markets.
Solving the diversification dilemma
"Don’t put all your eggs in one basket" is a phrase familiar to many of us, and when it comes to investing and minimising risk, it is quite a sensible...
The SARB hikes rates as food inflation threatens to erode the income of the working class
Raising rates by 50-basis points to take the SA repo rate to 4.75%, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivered what may have been a ‘credibility move’....
Food price inflation: Are we watching “That ‘70s Show”?
Unaffordable food and fuel prices are raising developed market consumer inflation to multi-decade highs, while the Federal Reserve recently announced a...
Q&A: Perspectives and positioning for 2022
Amid a rising inflationary environment and ongoing uncertainty, many investors are struggling to take a long-term view. During the recent Allan Gray webinar,...
The power of perspective in an expensive market
Historically, every decade has its “poster child” asset class. In the 70s it was gold, the 80s Japanese shares, and materials shares in the noughties. At the...
Sticking to the slow and steady path of normalisation, for now
At the January meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by another 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%.
The transition into the post-pandemic world
It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...
Global economic recovery slower and more complex than expected
The global recovery from the severe economic contraction in the first half of 2020, which followed the initial outbreak of the pandemic, has proved to be bot...
The divided Committee draws a line in the sand, but gradually
At the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%. The recent dissenting...
Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers
At a recent Allan Gray local investment update, chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, facilitated a robust discussion with portfolio managers, Thalia...
Orbis: Inflation – the bottom-up case for caution
If headlines are to be believed, people are gravely concerned that inflation will rise. If market prices are to be believed, people are quietly convinced tha...
Can we expect an interest rate hike in November?
South Africa should prepare for interest rate hikes given the rising inflationary pressures and global energy shortage currently unfolding. Thalia Petousis...
MPC rates decision: Where to from here?
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today made the unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.5%.
Sitting at the bottom of the interest rate cycle, potentially for much longer
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in May 2021 to again keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.5%, its lowest level since the...
Where to from here for interest rates and money market returns?
Lower interest rates, although a life jacket for those in debt or with home loans, have negative consequences for savers.
Anaemic rate environment for money market funds
We have undoubtedly entered a difficult period for money market funds, with the overnight repo rate at its lowest in South Africa’s history. Meanwhile, other...
COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update
During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...
Q&A: Understanding the economic context in which we must invest
As investors, we must understand the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the impact on different asset classes. Grant Pitt, joint head of Institutional...
The monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis
The Coronavirus pandemic has caused a massive disruption of global economic activity without peacetime precedent. In a presentation via Zoom webinar, Sandy...
The end of the free lunch
There is no such thing as a free lunch. Yet recent times have provided South African savers with something close to this, as risk-free returns from money...
Increasing policy uncertainty
With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...
SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest
South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...
Money Market Fund update: Lower yields suggest lower future money market returns
It has been good to be invested in money market funds over recent years. The Allan Gray Money Market Fund (the Fund) has returned 7.5% per annum over the las...
Don't let good news headlines thwart your savings plans
Positive sentiment in the country is being fuelled by a change in political leadership, the stronger rand, a higher-than-expected GDP growth rate and a more...
Stable Fund update: Justifying a higher net equity weighting in challenging times
Local inflation and interest rates have peaked in the current cycle and South Africa had its first interest rate cut in five years during the quarter. While...
Facing a fiscal crisis
The synchronised global economic expansion continues to gain momentum. World trade is growing and increasing demand is putting upward pressure on commodity...
Invest in stocks with dividends, but put stop losses in place
It is always a good time to invest, the question is where...
South Africa’s economic outlook deteriorates
Since the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2016, there has been a worldwide economic upturn. This is the first period of synchronous global growth since the...
The winds of change
While the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States was not expected by investors, it does not seem to have been unwelcome: both t...
Money Market Fund update: Rising inflation and low growth continue to cause concern
Global yields have fallen after Brexit became a reality when the UK voted to leave the EU. This uncertainty has decreased the expectation that the US Federal...
Uncertainty persists
The increased uncertainty that arose in December of last year has persisted throughout the first quarter of 2016. The current political climate and the threa...
Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls
Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .
Saving in a rising interest rate environment 2015
The South African Reserve bank has announced an interest rate increase from 6% to 6.25% confirming that the country is in a rising interest rate cycle. Whi...
A simple checklist for domestic asset allocation
I recently read the fascinating book ‘The Success Equation: Untangling luck in Business, Sports and Investing’1, which explores, how much of one’s success or...
Can the level of interest rates be used to reliably predict investment returns?
Local and global short-term interest rates are at low levels. This has led to questions about the rationale for holding cash both locally and offshore. We ha...
