Articles tagged as "markets"
Rate-cutting cycle kicks off
During the last quarter, US equity indices reached new all-time highs as the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) commenced its rate-cutting cycle with a cut of 50...
Orbis: President’s letter 2023
In his annual president’s letter, Adam R. Karr, from our offshore partner, Orbis, discusses the performance of the Orbis Strategies during 2023, looks back a...
Investment lessons from the Springboks
With the Springboks having successfully kicked off their Rugby World Cup title defence campaign in France, Braam Visser draws some interesting parallels...
The prospects for global growth
The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.
Regime change and the rise of the stockpicker
Alec Cutler chats to Bloomberg’s Merryn Somerset Webb about the impact of central bank and government intervention, the future of inflation and why being a...
Orbis: President’s letter 2022
In his president’s letter, Adam Karr, from our offshore partner, Orbis, reflects on the actions that he and the team took during 2022 to ensure they delivere...
Was 2022 a secular turning point and if so, what does it mean for the years ahead?
In his first investment update of 2023, Duncan Artus discusses the current investment context and how it differs from the past, shares a review of 2022 and...
Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal
2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...
Investment update: How to invest in a changing world
At Allan Gray we are bottom-up investors, but we want to be on the right side of long-term trends, particularly at secular turning points. During the recent...
How to invest in an inflationary, energy-short and increasingly divided world
At Allan Gray, we are bottom-up investors, but we want to be on the right side of long-term trends, particularly at secular turning points. One way is to...
Solving the diversification dilemma
"Don’t put all your eggs in one basket" is a phrase familiar to many of us, and when it comes to investing and minimising risk, it is quite a sensible...
Local investment update: Always pay the right price
Jacques Plaut and Duncan Artus discuss the positioning of our equity and multi-asset funds given the pre-existing trends exacerbated by the war in Ukraine....
Preparing for more uncertainty and volatility
A look back over the last two years reveals how difficult forecasting is. Even with perfect foresight of the pandemic context, one would not have been able t...
The transition into the post-pandemic world
It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...
Orbis: President’s letter 2021
In his inaugural president’s letter, Adam Karr, from our offshore partner, Orbis, shares some thoughts about himself, the path forward for Orbis, the market...
Global economic recovery slower and more complex than expected
The global recovery from the severe economic contraction in the first half of 2020, which followed the initial outbreak of the pandemic, has proved to be bot...
It’s the price you pay that matters
As investors we shouldn’t pretend we operate in a vacuum that is nicely insulated from the prevailing macroeconomic and political trends. However, it is...
Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation
With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...
Key questions that advisers and clients are asking
Uncertainty is a fact of life, and ever present in investing. There are times, however, when uncertainty seems to dominate sentiment and news flow – and...
Orbis: The three stages of recent performance explained
The past quarter has been painful. After an encouraging start to the year, the performance of our offshore partner, Orbis, has been impeded by its exposure t...
Active management: Potential for a comeback in a divided inflationary world
For most of the 2000s, the developed world has been characterised by disinflation and falling interest rates. This is despite a large increase in leverage, t...
Investment lessons for sharing
Money is a polarising topic, yet it is an important subject that greatly influences all of our lives. Opening up the space for money conversations can...
Investment update: Is it time to reduce SA share exposure?
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) is now significantly higher than it was before the pandemic – 21% up from the start of 2020. Is this a sign that it is ti...
In pursuit of value
The current disparity in markets, both locally and offshore, is creating an opportunity for bottom-up investors like ourselves to generate meaningful returns...
Global recovery underway
The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...
Equity Fund: Fishing in muddy waters
In his 1986 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett famously spoke of being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Orbis: Harder to get into than Harvard
If 2020 was an emotional roller coaster, the first month of 2021 provided a peek inside the darker corners of the funhouse. We remain hopeful that more...
The state of the economy
In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...
Habits that set successful investors apart
When investing, sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing. Having the ability to block out the noise, and look through the cycle, are some of the...
Investment update: Taking advantage of disparities in the market
One of the key preconditions for successful active management is the level of disparity in the markets. Duncan Artus discusses this in our first video and...
The impact of COVID-19's second wave
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the global recovery following the severe economic contraction experienced during the second quarter ...
Orbis: The power of perspective
It is easy to get caught up in the noise of short-term events like politics. What we have learned over the past 30 years is that a long-term view often revea...
The dangers of printing money
Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...
Prospects look promising
Disappointing short-term performance has had a dampening effect on longer-term numbers. Looking at similar periods in our history provides useful context and...
Do fundamentals still matter?
There is an increasingly wide disconnect between the economic reality on the ground and the valuations reflected in some asset classes globally, begging the...
How is the market up?
After the worst five-week crash ever, global stock markets have recovered all of their losses in just five months, with the MSCI World Index setting a new...
Orbis: Our job is to be uncomfortable
Our job at Allan Gray and Orbis is to be uncomfortable and to sweat our clients’ capital. Ultimately what we focus on is the risk of capital loss - and that...
Equity Fund update: In pursuit of potential
The most important determinant of investment success is the price you pay for an asset, and valuations for many quality companies are the cheapest they have...
COVID-19 continues to rock the global economy
It seems that, with a few exceptions, such as the southern United States, in the Northern Hemisphere the COVID-19 pandemic is well past its peak. Lockdowns a...
Dialling in to the mobile network operators
MTN has underperformed the FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) significantly over the last five years. It has been one of our largest underweights compared to ou...
COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update
During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...
Q&A: Understanding the economic context in which we must invest
As investors, we must understand the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the impact on different asset classes. Grant Pitt, joint head of Institutional...
The monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis
The Coronavirus pandemic has caused a massive disruption of global economic activity without peacetime precedent. In a presentation via Zoom webinar, Sandy...
Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Investing beyond COVID-19
While financial market volatility as a result of COVID-19 is expected to continue over the short term, the investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis are focus...
Orbis: Resilience and enthusiasm at a time of uncertainty
In a presentation to advisers and clients via Zoom webinar, Matthew Spencer, from our offshore partner Orbis, discusses the disappointing recent performance ...
Investing during lockdown and beyond
Sometimes in investing, the best thing to do is nothing. In a presentation to advisers and clients via Zoom webinar, Duncan Artus examined the levels and...
Perspectives and portfolio positioning amid COVID-19
The world as we know it has changed dramatically over the last two months, with the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown strategies causing extreme volatility on t...
Opinion: Counting the economic cost of South Africa’s lockdown
As South Africans, we want our country to prosper and the quality of life for all those living within our borders to improve. Millions live in total poverty...
Orbis: Performance and positioning during COVID-19
There has been little else to talk about as COVID-19 dominates world headlines. Globally, everyone is trying to evaluate the real impact the pandemic will ha...
Managing your portfolio through COVID-19
In just a matter of weeks our world has changed dramatically. In an attempt to make sense of it all, we look for information that will provide us with a sens...
COVID-19: Looking to history to understand potential outcomes
With much of the world in lockdown, one wonders whether it is appropriate to draw on past analogies in thinking about what lies ahead. However, every prior...
COVID-19: Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers
With many countries in lockdown, uncertainty prevails. Against this backdrop, many clients are asking for our views on the economic impact, an update on our...
COVID-19: We remain open for you during the lockdown
As we enter into lockdown, Tamryn Lamb, head of retail distribution, reassures investors that we are open during this most unsettling time. She also provides...
COVID-19: Supporting umbrella fund members through the lockdown
As we enter into lockdown, Saleem Sonday, head of group savings and investments, reassures umbrella fund members that the trustees continue to ensure that...
COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity
We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...
Coronavirus: Taking stock of the state of the markets
The world is changing extremely fast. The global business shutdown is unlike anything seen outside wartime. It is impossible to know the length or depth of t...
How will current market conditions impact our portfolios?
The start of 2020 has been tumultuous as fears about the coronavirus have dominated the news and global markets. The resulting volatility has been compounded...
Making sense of current market conditions
The current market volatility is understandably causing investors much stress. Andrew Lapping examines the impact of coronavirus and the drop of the oil pric...
2020 Budget: Stuck between a rock and a hard place
A revenue shortfall of R50bn was announced in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in October 2019, and this sets the scene for the 2020 Budget....
The money bubble
There’s something magical about bubbles. Formed of water, soap and a breath of air they seem incredible. In financial markets, bubbles are a lot less revered...
Inflation
Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...
Negativity can often present opportunity
With doom and gloom pervading locally, and the world economy slowing, you may be feeling like the safest place for your money is under your mattress. This is...
An age of anxiety
We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...
South African investors need to fall out of love with equities
South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...
Is it 2002 all over again? Not quite
Domestically focused shares that are exposed to the local economy have underperformed the overall market. Duncan Artus investigates whether the current...
Trade wars
In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...
Global business conditions deteriorate
Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...
Grow your wealth by attending the Allan Gray Investment Summit
After successfully bringing together renowned investment experts from all over the globe for two consecutive years to sold-out audiences, the Allan Gray...
Balanced Fund update: An improved opportunity set
The poor sentiment towards equity markets at the end of 2018 reversed sharply in the first quarter of 2019, with the JSE appreciating 8% and the MSCI World...
Finding value in frontier African markets
Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...
Global slowdown continues to take its toll
The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...
The dash for cash
The end of the calendar year often leads to reflection on how one’s investments have performed. Many savers are questioning the wisdom of investing in South...
Global economy losing momentum
After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...
The upside of down markets
2018 was not a good year for investors with price declines in many asset classes. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) fell 8.5% in 2018, or 21% when measured...
Understanding recent performance
2018 was a difficult year for investors with most asset classes falling in price. The prices of all assets are volatile; the only asset to seemingly lack...
Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure
Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...
How to thrive in choppy markets
This year has been characterised by increased volatility and concern about the global risks – from trade disputes to inflation. After a strong start to the...
Ride out volatility and maximise returns
Market fluctuations are an expected and necessary part of investing. While market volatility often presents good opportunities for value investors like Allan...
Increasing policy uncertainty
With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...
Zimbabwe in transition
Zimbabwe’s election on 30 July 2018 heralds a new beginning after the abrupt end to President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year reign in November 2017. We are not...
Q&A: Orbis Global Equity Fund
What are the names of the managers of the Orbis Global Equity Fund and where are they based...
What can be done to address SA’s fiscal crisis?
Global economic activity continued to gain momentum in the last quarter of 2017. Global purchasing manager’s indices, which are a good barometer of current a...
The value of bitcoin
The total market value of all bitcoins is US$80bn, which is more than the value of Richemont and triple the value of Anglo American. It is the topic on which...
Facing a fiscal crisis
The synchronised global economic expansion continues to gain momentum. World trade is growing and increasing demand is putting upward pressure on commodity...
Is now the time to invest?
Is it time to put your money under the mattress or is it time to invest? Watch this 7-min clip with Andrew Lapping, our chief investment officer, and Todd...
Global jitters: Avoid safe havens, opportunity in overlooked sectors
The uncertain global political and economic backdrop created by unexpected recent shocks has spooked investors. However fear, particularly when spurred by...
Beware the siren song of growth
Growth has an almost irresistible allure for investors. Whether it’s a rapidly growing economy, a start-up with a hot new product, or a new industry that...
Keep calm and carry on investing
The past 12 months seem to have passed particularly swiftly, maybe because fundamentally very little changed. Interestingly, the light in which investors vie...
The winds of change
While the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States was not expected by investors, it does not seem to have been unwelcome: both t...
Annual report from the outgoing Chief Investment Officer
Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2015. These are Ian Liddle’s final Annual...
What's wrong with the South African economy
After growing strongly for 10 years, since 2012 the South African economy has been stagnating, which prompts the question: What has gone wrong and how can th...
A simple checklist for domestic asset allocation
I recently read the fascinating book ‘The Success Equation: Untangling luck in Business, Sports and Investing’1, which explores, how much of one’s success or...
Investing: a history of bubbles
'Invest in stocks? Forget about it.' - USA Today headline, 8 May 2012. As contrarian investors, we cannot help but take notice when one of the most widely re...
The trend is your friend till it bends at the end
For some time we have been concerned about the sustainability and unbalanced nature of consumption growth in South Africa. I don’t believe you can consume,...
High correlations present challenges
Actively managed funds, including the Orbis Global Equity Fund, have struggled to outperform the market over the past year. Actively managed funds are able t...
Looking back at 2011 and preparing for the years ahead
South Africa has thus far been spared the crushing austerity measures affecting Europe. Three important factors have been in our favour so far: a decade of...
An era of high global earnings
Company profits are currently at historic highs, but we do not know with any certainty where they are headed. Although it is entirely possible for global and...
What we know for sure
At Allan Gray we prefer not to opine over reasons for short-term movements in stock markets and share prices and we shy away from predicting changes in the...
Can the level of interest rates be used to reliably predict investment returns?
Local and global short-term interest rates are at low levels. This has led to questions about the rationale for holding cash both locally and offshore. We ha...
Welcoming the world to South Africa (but are they here to stay...?)
For most of the time since our first democratic election in 1994, foreign investors have been net buyers of companies listed on the JSE. They are now...
Another view
Governments around the world are engaged in significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. But there is some doubt about whether their efforts will improve the re...
The triumph of the markets
It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...
